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Motor Lublin vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
FT
2 – 6
HT: 1 – 4
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
9/18/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 11Arena Lublin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Motor Lublin51%
×Draw23%
Wisła Puławy26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motor Lublin
1.83
Wisła Puławy
1.23

Motor Lublin creates 49% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

creates per match

Motor Lublin
1.83
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Motor Lublin
0.96
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Motor Lublin+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motor Lublin ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Motor Lublin or draw
74%
Motor Lublin or Wisła Puławy
77%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
49%

Winning margin

Motor Lublin wins by 2+
29%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Motor Lublin 1+ goals
84%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
54%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
28%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
71%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
35%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
67%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motor Lublin at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motor Lublin attack 1.83 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.83

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Motor Lublin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Motor Lublin scores more
51%
level
23%
Wisła Puławy scores more
26%

Motor Lublin at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Motor Lublin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Motor Lublin 2–6 Wisła Puławy

Wisła Puławy beat Motor Lublin 6-2 in II Liga - East on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Arena Lublin in Lublin.