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Wisła Puławy vs ŁKS Łódź II — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
11/23/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 19Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wisła Puławy47%
×Draw25%
ŁKS Łódź II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.59
ŁKS Łódź II
1.17

Wisła Puławy creates 36% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
ŁKS Łódź II
1.04

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
ŁKS Łódź II
1.69

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

ŁKS Łódź II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
72%
Wisła Puławy or ŁKS Łódź II
75%
Draw or ŁKS Łódź II
53%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
24%
ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
80%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
47%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
21%
ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
69%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
33%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
63%
ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

ŁKS Łódź II away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.59

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.04 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
47%
level
25%
ŁKS Łódź II scores more
28%

Wisła Puławy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Puławy vs ŁKS Łódź II

ŁKS Łódź II beat Wisła Puławy 4-0 in II Liga - East on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.