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ŁKS Łódź II vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

ŁKS Łódź II
ŁKS Łódź II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
11/26/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 19Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

ŁKS Łódź II40%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ŁKS Łódź II
1.57
Wisła Puławy
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 70 away

creates per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.31
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

ŁKS Łódź II
1.47
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

ŁKS Łódź II+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ŁKS Łódź II ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ŁKS Łódź II or draw
64%
ŁKS Łódź II or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
60%

Winning margin

ŁKS Łódź II wins by 2+
20%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

ŁKS Łódź II 1+ goals
79%
ŁKS Łódź II 2+ goals
46%
ŁKS Łódź II 3+ goals
21%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
77%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
43%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

ŁKS Łódź II (draw refunded)
53%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ŁKS Łódź II at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ŁKS Łódź II attack 1.31 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.57

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + ŁKS Łódź II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ŁKS Łódź II scores more
40%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
36%

ŁKS Łódź II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ŁKS Łódź II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: ŁKS Łódź II 2–1 Wisła Puławy

ŁKS Łódź II beat Wisła Puławy 2-1 in II Liga - East on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Łódź.