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Wisła Puławy vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
3/12/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 22Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wisła Puławy38%
×Draw24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.50
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
62%
Wisła Puławy or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
76%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
62%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
18%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
78%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
44%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
19%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
78%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
44%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
50%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
38%
level
24%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
38%

Wisła Puławy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Wisła Puławy 2–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Wisła Puławy beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2-1 in II Liga - East on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.