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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
8/10/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 5Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg48%
×Draw25%
Wisła Puławy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.62
Wisła Puławy
1.14

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.41
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.79
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
73%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Wisła Puławy
75%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
52%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
25%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
80%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
48%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
22%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
68%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
32%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
64%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.62

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
48%
level
25%
Wisła Puławy scores more
27%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2–1 Wisła Puławy

Kotwica Kołobrzeg beat Wisła Puławy 2-1 in II Liga - East on August 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.