Wisła Puławy 3–1 Korona Kielce II: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Korona Kielce II

S. Koziej 89'

Trialist 42'

M. Stromecki 19'

Unknown 81'

2/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wisła Puławy77%

×Draw14%

Korona Kielce II9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchKorona Kielce II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.90

0.94

Wisła Puławy

2.90

Korona Kielce II

0.94

Wisła Puławy creates 209% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

2.80

creates per match

0.67

1.20

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

2.80

Korona Kielce II

0.67

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

1.20

Korona Kielce II

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Korona Kielce II →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

91%

Wisła Puławy or Korona Kielce II

86%

Draw or Korona Kielce II

23%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

56%

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

94%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

78%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

54%

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals

61%

Korona Kielce II 2+ goals

24%

Korona Kielce II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

89%

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Korona Kielce II away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.80 + Korona Kielce II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.90

Korona Kielce II attack 0.67 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

77%

level

14%

Korona Kielce II scores more

Wisła Puławy at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

M. Stromecki

42'

Trialist

81'

89'

S. Koziej

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff