Korona Kielce II 0–4 Wisła Puławy: Result & Stats

Korona Kielce II

FT

0 – 4

Wisła Puławy

B. Cyfert 86'

A. Paluchowski 64'

E. Furtado 34'

B. Bartosiak 10'

3/14/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Korona Kielce II28%

×Draw23%

Wisła Puławy49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona Kielce IIExpected goals in this matchWisła Puławy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.85

Korona Kielce II

1.34

Wisła Puławy

1.85

Wisła Puławy creates 38% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 20 away

2.04

creates per match

2.10

1.60

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Korona Kielce II

2.04

Wisła Puławy

2.10

allows per match

Korona Kielce II

1.60

Wisła Puławy

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Wisła Puławy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw

51%

Korona Kielce II or Wisła Puławy

77%

Draw or Wisła Puławy

72%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+

12%

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals

74%

Korona Kielce II 2+ goals

39%

Korona Kielce II 3+ goals

15%

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

84%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

55%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)

36%

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more

28%

level

23%

Wisła Puławy scores more

49%

Wisła Puławy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

B. Bartosiak

34'

E. Furtado

64'

A. Paluchowski

86'

B. Cyfert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff