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Wisła Puławy vs Górnik Polkowice — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
9/10/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 10Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Puławy39%
×Draw26%
Górnik Polkowice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.40
Górnik Polkowice
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
Górnik Polkowice
1.40

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
Górnik Polkowice
1.30

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Górnik Polkowice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
64%
Wisła Puławy or Górnik Polkowice
74%
Draw or Górnik Polkowice
61%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
18%
Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
75%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
41%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
17%
Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
74%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
39%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
52%
Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.40 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
39%
level
26%
Górnik Polkowice scores more
36%

Wisła Puławy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Puławy vs Górnik Polkowice

Wisła Puławy and Górnik Polkowice drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on September 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.