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Górnik Polkowice vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Górnik Polkowice
Górnik Polkowice
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
4/15/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 27Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Górnik Polkowice51%
×Draw22%
Wisła Puławy26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Polkowice
1.92
Wisła Puławy
1.32

Górnik Polkowice creates 45% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 70 away

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice
2.00
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice
1.15
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw
74%
Górnik Polkowice or Wisła Puławy
78%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
49%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+
29%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals
85%
Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals
57%
Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals
30%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
73%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
38%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)
66%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.15 · 53 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 2.00 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.92

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more
51%
level
22%
Wisła Puławy scores more
26%

Górnik Polkowice at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Polkowice vs Wisła Puławy

Górnik Polkowice beat Wisła Puławy 1-0 in II Liga - East on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Górnik in Polkowice.