Wisła Puławy 3–2 Garbarnia Kraków: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Garbarnia Kraków

R. Majewski 84'

B. Gvozdenović 45'

D. Retlewski 8'

K. Dziedzic 43'

B. Gvozdenović 32' (OG)

8/26/2022

II Liga - East · Round 8Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wisła Puławy42%

×Draw25%

Garbarnia Kraków33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchGarbarnia Kraków

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.29

Wisła Puławy

1.48

Garbarnia Kraków

1.29

Wisła Puławy creates 15% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.49

creates per match

1.28

1.29

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

1.49

Garbarnia Kraków

1.28

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

1.29

Garbarnia Kraków

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

67%

Wisła Puławy or Garbarnia Kraków

75%

Draw or Garbarnia Kraków

58%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

20%

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

77%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

43%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

19%

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals

72%

Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals

37%

Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

56%

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

42%

level

25%

Garbarnia Kraków scores more

33%

Wisła Puławy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

D. Retlewski

10'

G. Marszalik

32'

B. GvozdenovićOwn goal

38'

D. Nakrosius

39'

M. Bartkow

40'

P. Warczak← J. Karbownik

43'

K. Dziedzic

45'

B. Gvozdenović

46'

A. Paluchowski← M. Ryszka

46'

J. Sutor← A. Dziedzic

49'

D. Gądek← K. Dziedzic

57'

M. Klichowicz

60'

D. Banach← M. Kaczmarek

60'

A. Papikyan← M. Klichowicz

64'

D. Cheba

69'

M. Kona

72'

T. Pranica← G. Marszalik

72'

73'

80'

84'

90'

D. Gadek

Wisła

Garbarnia

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽🥅

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Pawlak

46'▲A. Paluchowski←▼M. Ryszka

60'▲D. Banach←▼M. Kaczmarek

60'▲A. Papikyan←▼M. Klichowicz

Wisła Puławy substitutes

PaluchowskiBanachPapikyan

Manager: M. Musiał

40'▲P. Warczak←▼J. Karbownik

46'▲J. Sutor←▼A. Dziedzic

49'▲D. Gądek←▼K. Dziedzic

72'▲T. Pranica←▼G. Marszalik

72'▲J. Banach←▼M. Kardas

Garbarnia Kraków substitutes

WarczakSutorGądekPranicaBanach

II Liga - East: Wisła Puławy 3–2 Garbarnia Kraków

Wisła Puławy beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-2 in II Liga - East on August 26, 2022.

Goals: D. Retlewski (8'), B. Gvozdenović (32' o.g., 45'), K. Dziedzic (43'), R. Majewski (84').

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.

Wisła Puławy vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

II Liga - East: Wisła Puławy 3–2 Garbarnia Kraków