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Garbarnia Kraków vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
12/5/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 20Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków43%
×Draw23%
Wisła Puławy33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
1.70
Wisła Puławy
1.46

Garbarnia Kraków creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 70 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.57
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.42
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
67%
Garbarnia Kraków or Wisła Puławy
77%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
57%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
23%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
82%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
51%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
24%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
77%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
43%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
57%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 69 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.57 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
43%
level
23%
Wisła Puławy scores more
33%

Garbarnia Kraków at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Garbarnia Kraków will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Garbarnia Kraków 2–1 Wisła Puławy

Garbarnia Kraków beat Wisła Puławy 2-1 in II Liga - East on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Garbarni przy ul. Barskiej in Kraków.