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Wisła Płock II vs Sokół Aleksandrów — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Wisła Płock II
Wisła Płock II
FT
2 – 2
Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
10/6/2024III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stadion Miejski im. Bernarda Szymańskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wisła Płock II49%
×Draw24%
Sokół Aleksandrów28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Płock II
1.73
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.25

Wisła Płock II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Wisła Płock II
1.74
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.13

allows per match

Wisła Płock II
1.38
Sokół Aleksandrów
1.71

finishing

Wisła Płock II+0.00on par
Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Płock II ↓

Sokół Aleksandrów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wisła Płock II or draw
72%
Wisła Płock II or Sokół Aleksandrów
76%
Draw or Sokół Aleksandrów
51%

Winning margin

Wisła Płock II wins by 2+
26%
Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wisła Płock II 1+ goals
82%
Wisła Płock II 2+ goals
52%
Wisła Płock II 3+ goals
25%
Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
71%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
36%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wisła Płock II (draw refunded)
64%
Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Płock II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 34 matches

Sokół Aleksandrów away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Płock II attack 1.74 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.13 + Wisła Płock II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wisła Płock II scores more
49%
level
24%
Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
28%

Wisła Płock II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wisła Płock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 1: Wisła Płock II 2–2 Sokół Aleksandrów

Wisła Płock II and Sokół Aleksandrów drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Bernarda Szymańskiego in Płock.