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Sokół Aleksandrów vs Wisła Płock II — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Aleksandrów
Sokół Aleksandrów
FT
2 – 3
Wisła Płock II
Wisła Płock II
5/2/2025III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 28Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Aleksandrów37%
×Draw25%
Wisła Płock II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.45
Wisła Płock II
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.08
Wisła Płock II
1.50

allows per match

Sokół Aleksandrów
1.50
Wisła Płock II
1.82

finishing

Sokół Aleksandrów+0.00on par
Wisła Płock II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Aleksandrów ↓

Wisła Płock II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sokół Aleksandrów or draw
61%
Sokół Aleksandrów or Wisła Płock II
75%
Draw or Wisła Płock II
63%

Winning margin

Sokół Aleksandrów wins by 2+
17%
Wisła Płock II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Sokół Aleksandrów 1+ goals
77%
Sokół Aleksandrów 2+ goals
42%
Sokół Aleksandrów 3+ goals
18%
Wisła Płock II 1+ goals
78%
Wisła Płock II 2+ goals
44%
Wisła Płock II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sokół Aleksandrów (draw refunded)
49%
Wisła Płock II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Aleksandrów at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.50 · 52 matches

Wisła Płock II away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Aleksandrów attack 1.08 + Wisła Płock II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Wisła Płock II attack 1.50 + Sokół Aleksandrów defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokół Aleksandrów scores more
37%
level
25%
Wisła Płock II scores more
39%

Wisła Płock II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wisła Płock II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Aleksandrów vs Wisła Płock II

Wisła Płock II beat Sokół Aleksandrów 3-2 in III Liga - Group 1 on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Włodzimierza Smolarka in Aleksandrów Łódzki.