Wisła Kraków II 5–0 Wiązownica: Result & Stats

Wisła Kraków II

FT

5 – 0

Wiązownica

11/8/2024

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 16Stadion Miejski KS Prądniczanka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wisła Kraków II57%

×Draw20%

Wiązownica23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła Kraków IIExpected goals in this matchWiązownica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.36

Wisła Kraków II

2.26

Wiązownica

1.36

Wisła Kraków II creates 66% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

2.35

creates per match

1.26

1.47

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Wisła Kraków II

2.35

Wiązownica

1.26

allows per match

Wisła Kraków II

1.47

Wiązownica

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Kraków II+0.00on par

Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Kraków II ↓

Wiązownica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Wisła Kraków II or draw

77%

Wisła Kraków II or Wiązownica

80%

Draw or Wiązownica

43%

Winning margin

Wisła Kraków II wins by 2+

36%

Wiązownica wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wisła Kraków II 1+ goals

89%

Wisła Kraków II 2+ goals

66%

Wisła Kraków II 3+ goals

39%

Wiązownica 1+ goals

74%

Wiązownica 2+ goals

39%

Wiązownica 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wisła Kraków II (draw refunded)

72%

Wiązownica (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Kraków II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Kraków II attack 2.35 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.26

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Wisła Kraków II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wisła Kraków II scores more

57%

level

20%

Wiązownica scores more

23%

Wisła Kraków II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wisła Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff