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Wiązownica vs Wisła Kraków II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Wisła Kraków II
Wisła Kraków II
5/31/2025III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wiązownica38%
×Draw22%
Wisła Kraków II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.73
Wisła Kraków II
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
Wisła Kraków II
1.74

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
Wisła Kraków II
2.00

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
Wisła Kraków II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

Wisła Kraków II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
60%
Wiązownica or Wisła Kraków II
78%
Draw or Wisła Kraków II
62%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
19%
Wisła Kraków II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
82%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
52%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
25%
Wisła Kraków II 1+ goals
83%
Wisła Kraków II 2+ goals
53%
Wisła Kraków II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
48%
Wisła Kraków II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Wisła Kraków II away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + Wisła Kraków II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Wisła Kraków II attack 1.74 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wiązownica scores more
38%
level
22%
Wisła Kraków II scores more
40%

Wisła Kraków II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisła Kraków II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiązownica 0–3 Wisła Kraków II

Wisła Kraków II beat Wiązownica 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 31, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.