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Ballinamallard United vs Carrick Rangers — League #407 2026

Ballinamallard United
Ballinamallard United
FT
1 – 2
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
9/29/2018League #407League #407 · Round 8Ferney Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ballinamallard United39%
×Draw26%
Carrick Rangers35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballinamallard United
1.41
Carrick Rangers
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ballinamallard United
1.81
Carrick Rangers
1.60

allows per match

Ballinamallard United
1.06
Carrick Rangers
1.00

finishing

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par
Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballinamallard United ↓

Carrick Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ballinamallard United or draw
65%
Ballinamallard United or Carrick Rangers
74%
Draw or Carrick Rangers
61%

Winning margin

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+
18%
Carrick Rangers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals
76%
Ballinamallard United 2+ goals
41%
Ballinamallard United 3+ goals
17%
Carrick Rangers 1+ goals
74%
Carrick Rangers 2+ goals
38%
Carrick Rangers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)
52%
Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballinamallard United at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballinamallard United attack 1.81 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Carrick Rangers attack 1.60 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ballinamallard United scores more
39%
level
26%
Carrick Rangers scores more
35%

Ballinamallard United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ballinamallard United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballinamallard United vs Carrick Rangers

Carrick Rangers beat Ballinamallard United 2-1 in League #407 on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Ferney Park in Ballinamallard.