Carrick Rangers 1–3 Ballinamallard United

Carrick Rangers

FT

1 – 3

Ballinamallard United

11/10/2018

League #407 · Round 14Belfast Loughshore Hotel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Carrick Rangers41%

×Draw24%

Ballinamallard United34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carrick RangersExpected goals in this matchBallinamallard United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.40

Carrick Rangers

1.56

Ballinamallard United

1.40

Carrick Rangers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

1.50

1.30

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Carrick Rangers

1.80

Ballinamallard United

1.50

allows per match

Carrick Rangers

1.30

Ballinamallard United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Ballinamallard United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carrick Rangers ↓

Ballinamallard United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Carrick Rangers or draw

66%

Carrick Rangers or Ballinamallard United

76%

Draw or Ballinamallard United

59%

Winning margin

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

20%

Ballinamallard United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

79%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

46%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

21%

Ballinamallard United 1+ goals

75%

Ballinamallard United 2+ goals

41%

Ballinamallard United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

55%

Ballinamallard United (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carrick Rangers at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Ballinamallard United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carrick Rangers attack 1.80 + Ballinamallard United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ballinamallard United attack 1.50 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Carrick Rangers scores more

41%

level

24%

Ballinamallard United scores more

34%

Carrick Rangers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Carrick Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff