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Wiltz vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

Wiltz
Wiltz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
2/9/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 16Stade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Wiltz34%
×Draw24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiltz
1.46
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.63

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 12% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 111 away

creates per match

Wiltz
1.56
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.62

allows per match

Wiltz
1.64
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.35

finishing

Wiltz+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiltz ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Wiltz or draw
58%
Wiltz or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
76%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
66%

Winning margin

Wiltz wins by 2+
16%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wiltz 1+ goals
77%
Wiltz 2+ goals
43%
Wiltz 3+ goals
18%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
80%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
48%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wiltz (draw refunded)
45%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiltz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 75 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.35 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiltz attack 1.56 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.62 + Wiltz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wiltz scores more
34%
level
24%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
42%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Wiltz 1–0 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

Wiltz beat Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1-0 in National Division on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade am Petz in Weidingen.