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Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Wiltz — National Division 2018

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wiltz
Wiltz
3/19/2023National DivisionNational Division · Round 21Stade Achille Hammerel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg48%
×Draw23%
Wiltz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.78
Wiltz
1.34

Racing FC Union Luxembourg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 75 away

creates per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.64
Wiltz
1.31

allows per match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.38
Wiltz
1.92

finishing

Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par
Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing FC Union Luxembourg ↓

Wiltz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Racing FC Union Luxembourg or draw
71%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg or Wiltz
77%
Draw or Wiltz
52%

Winning margin

Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
26%
Wiltz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
83%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
53%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
26%
Wiltz 1+ goals
74%
Wiltz 2+ goals
39%
Wiltz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
62%
Wiltz (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.38 · 112 matches

Wiltz away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.92 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.64 + Wiltz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.78

Wiltz attack 1.31 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
48%
level
23%
Wiltz scores more
29%

Racing FC Union Luxembourg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Racing FC Union Luxembourg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 0–1 Wiltz

Wiltz beat Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1-0 in National Division on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Achille Hammerel in Luxembourg.