Wiltz 6–0 Marisca Mersch: Result & Stats | Cup

Wiltz

FT

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Marisca Mersch

11/9/2025

Cup · Round of 32Stade Am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Wiltz58%

×Draw19%

Marisca Mersch23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiltzExpected goals in this matchMarisca Mersch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

1.55

Wiltz

2.52

Marisca Mersch

1.55

Wiltz creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

3.25

creates per match

2.10

1.00

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Wiltz

3.25

Marisca Mersch

2.10

allows per match

Wiltz

1.00

Marisca Mersch

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiltz+0.00on par

Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiltz ↓

Marisca Mersch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Wiltz or draw

77%

Wiltz or Marisca Mersch

81%

Draw or Marisca Mersch

42%

Winning margin

Wiltz wins by 2+

38%

Marisca Mersch wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wiltz 1+ goals

92%

Wiltz 2+ goals

71%

Wiltz 3+ goals

45%

Marisca Mersch 1+ goals

79%

Marisca Mersch 2+ goals

46%

Marisca Mersch 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Wiltz (draw refunded)

72%

Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiltz at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiltz attack 3.25 + Marisca Mersch defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.52

Marisca Mersch attack 2.10 + Wiltz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Wiltz scores more

58%

level

19%

Marisca Mersch scores more

23%

Wiltz at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Wiltz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff