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Wiltz vs Marisca Mersch — National Division 2018

Wiltz
Wiltz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Marisca Mersch
Marisca Mersch
2/18/2024National DivisionNational Division · Round 17Stade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wiltz49%
×Draw23%
Marisca Mersch28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiltz
1.84
Marisca Mersch
1.35

Wiltz creates 36% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wiltz
1.56
Marisca Mersch
1.07

allows per match

Wiltz
1.64
Marisca Mersch
2.13

finishing

Wiltz+0.00on par
Marisca Mersch+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiltz ↓

Marisca Mersch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wiltz or draw
72%
Wiltz or Marisca Mersch
77%
Draw or Marisca Mersch
51%

Winning margin

Wiltz wins by 2+
27%
Marisca Mersch wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wiltz 1+ goals
84%
Wiltz 2+ goals
55%
Wiltz 3+ goals
28%
Marisca Mersch 1+ goals
74%
Marisca Mersch 2+ goals
39%
Marisca Mersch 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wiltz (draw refunded)
63%
Marisca Mersch (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiltz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 75 matches

Marisca Mersch away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiltz attack 1.56 + Marisca Mersch defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.84

Marisca Mersch attack 1.07 + Wiltz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wiltz scores more
49%
level
23%
Marisca Mersch scores more
28%

Wiltz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wiltz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Wiltz 0–1 Marisca Mersch

Marisca Mersch beat Wiltz 1-0 in National Division on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stade am Petz in Weidingen.