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Wiltz vs FC Differdange 03 — National Division 2018

Wiltz
Wiltz
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
FC Differdange 03
FC Differdange 03
5/10/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 28Stade am Petz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Wiltz30%
×Draw24%
FC Differdange 0347%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiltz
1.33
FC Differdange 03
1.73

FC Differdange 03 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 112 away

creates per match

Wiltz
1.56
FC Differdange 03
1.83

allows per match

Wiltz
1.64
FC Differdange 03
1.10

finishing

Wiltz+0.00on par
FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiltz ↓

FC Differdange 03 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wiltz or draw
53%
Wiltz or FC Differdange 03
76%
Draw or FC Differdange 03
70%

Winning margin

Wiltz wins by 2+
13%
FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Wiltz 1+ goals
74%
Wiltz 2+ goals
38%
Wiltz 3+ goals
15%
FC Differdange 03 1+ goals
82%
FC Differdange 03 2+ goals
52%
FC Differdange 03 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Wiltz (draw refunded)
39%
FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiltz at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.64 · 75 matches

FC Differdange 03 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.10 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiltz attack 1.56 + FC Differdange 03 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Differdange 03 attack 1.83 + Wiltz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wiltz scores more
30%
level
24%
FC Differdange 03 scores more
47%

FC Differdange 03 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: Wiltz 0–4 FC Differdange 03

FC Differdange 03 beat Wiltz 4-0 in National Division on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stade am Petz in Weidingen.