FC Differdange 03 3–0 Wiltz: Result & Stats | Cup

FC Differdange 03

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wiltz

5/14/2025

Cup · Semi-finalsStade Parc des Sports

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FC Differdange 0340%

×Draw20%

Wiltz40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Differdange 03Expected goals in this matchWiltz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

FC Differdange 03

2.20

Wiltz

2.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

3.22

creates per match

3.73

0.67

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

FC Differdange 03

3.22

Wiltz

3.73

allows per match

FC Differdange 03

0.67

Wiltz

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Differdange 03+0.00on par

Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Differdange 03 ↓

Wiltz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

FC Differdange 03 or draw

60%

FC Differdange 03 or Wiltz

80%

Draw or Wiltz

60%

Winning margin

FC Differdange 03 wins by 2+

23%

Wiltz wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

FC Differdange 03 1+ goals

89%

FC Differdange 03 2+ goals

64%

FC Differdange 03 3+ goals

37%

Wiltz 1+ goals

89%

Wiltz 2+ goals

64%

Wiltz 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

FC Differdange 03 (draw refunded)

50%

Wiltz (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Differdange 03 at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Wiltz away — creates 3.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Differdange 03 attack 3.22 + Wiltz defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.20

Wiltz attack 3.73 + FC Differdange 03 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FC Differdange 03 scores more

40%

level

20%

Wiltz scores more

40%

FC Differdange 03 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Differdange 03 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff