Willem II 1–1 Waalwijk: Result & Stats

Willem II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Waalwijk

M. El Allouchi 46'

J. Boetius 59'

5/9/2026

Eerste Divisie · Quarter-finalsKoning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Willem II48%

×Draw24%

Waalwijk28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Willem IIExpected goals in this matchWaalwijk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.23

Willem II

1.69

Waalwijk

1.23

Willem II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 56 away

1.85

creates per match

1.50

0.95

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Willem II

1.85

Waalwijk

1.50

allows per match

Willem II

0.95

Waalwijk

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par

Waalwijk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Waalwijk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Willem II or draw

72%

Willem II or Waalwijk

76%

Draw or Waalwijk

52%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+

26%

Waalwijk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals

82%

Willem II 2+ goals

50%

Willem II 3+ goals

24%

Waalwijk 1+ goals

71%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

35%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)

63%

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Waalwijk away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + Waalwijk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Waalwijk attack 1.50 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Willem II scores more

48%

level

24%

Waalwijk scores more

28%

Willem II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

U. van Aalst← S. Baartmans

46'

M. El Allouchi↳ F. Stam

51'

G. Besselink

59'

J. Boetius

64'

L. Postma

71'

S. Bamba← D. Haen

71'

R. Fage← J. Boetius

71'

H. Kuster← D. Cleonise

76'

D. van Kaam

77'

P. van Loon← N. Tjoe a On

77'

A. Culum← M. El Allouchi

82'

R. van Eijma← L. Postma

82'

Y. van der Veen← D. van Kaam

84'

N. Held

87'

C. Twigt

90+2'

M. Kramer

Willem

Waalwijk

1

Osch

19

Bakboord

35

▼

4

55

10

8

▼

Kaam

14

⚽

▼

Boetius

7

▼

29

5

1

3

A

Stam

30

Behounek

4

Hoogma

24

▼

7

8

6

20

⚽

▼

Allouchi

9

▼

Haen

47

▼

Baartmans

Manager: John Stegeman

46'▲U. van Aalst←▼S. Baartmans

71'▲S. Bamba←▼D. Haen

77'▲P. van Loon←▼N. Tjoe a On

77'▲A. Culum←▼M. El Allouchi

Willem II substitutes

21Steen31Leeuw15Taibi17Bamba45Esdonk19Aalst49Jonge22Loon28Verheydt23Abildgaard11Culum14Mathijsen

Manager: Sander Duits

71'▲R. Fage←▼J. Boetius

71'▲H. Kuster←▼D. Cleonise

82'▲R. van Eijma←▼L. Postma

82'▲Y. van der Veen←▼D. van Kaam

Waalwijk substitutes

16Spenkelink26Bramel3Eijma21Schaapman12Fage18Hedel25Witteveen30Veen6Roemeratoe20Kuster28Beekveld

Match Recap: Willem II vs Waalwijk

Willem II and Waalwijk drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on May 9, 2026.

Goals: M. El Allouchi (46'), J. Boetius (59').

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.

Willem II vs Waalwijk — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Willem II vs Waalwijk