Waalwijk 2–0 Willem II: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Waalwijk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Willem II

T. van de Loo 46'

T. St. Jago 22' (OG)

1/26/2025

Eredivisie · Round 20Mandemakers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Waalwijk50%

×Draw28%

Willem II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaalwijkExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.79

Waalwijk

1.36

Willem II

0.79

Waalwijk creates 72% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.19

creates per match

0.57

1.02

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Waalwijk

1.19

Willem II

0.57

allows per match

Waalwijk

1.02

Willem II

1.53

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

Waalwijk+0.44scores more

Willem II+0.18scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waalwijk ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Waalwijk or draw

78%

Waalwijk or Willem II

72%

Draw or Willem II

50%

Winning margin

Waalwijk wins by 2+

24%

Willem II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Waalwijk 1+ goals

74%

Waalwijk 2+ goals

39%

Waalwijk 3+ goals

16%

Willem II 1+ goals

55%

Willem II 2+ goals

19%

Willem II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Waalwijk (draw refunded)

70%

Willem II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waalwijk at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 8 matches

Willem II away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.53 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waalwijk attack 1.19 + Willem II defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.36

Willem II attack 0.57 + Waalwijk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Waalwijk scores more

50%

level

28%

Willem II scores more

22%

Waalwijk at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Waalwijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

T. van de Loo

Waalwijk · M

7.9

Match Events

1'

Tommy St. Jago

22'

T. St. JagoOwn goal

37'

Jesse Bosch

38'

Mohamed Ihattaren

46'

C. Sandra← N. Doodeman

46'

T. van de Loo

57'

Juan Castillo

61'

A. Fatah← P. Joosten

63'

A. Meijers← J. Familia-Castillo

68'

Yassin Oukili

72'

Y. Sylla← B. Lambert

73'

Mickael Tirpan

77'

P. Vroegh← J. Lelieveld

77'

M. Kramer← R. Margaret

82'

K. Vaesen← J. Bokila

84'

G. Roemeratoe← K. Felida

84'

R. van der Venne← M. Ihattaren

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaalwijkWillem

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots9

0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.57

10Corners3

12Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots9

2On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

3Inside Box5

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

378Total Passes435

285Accurate Passes348

75%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-1.59Goals Prevented-1.59

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3