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Willem II vs VVV Venlo — Eredivisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
AET
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
VVV Venlo
VVV Venlo
5/27/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Relegation RoundKoning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Willem II49%
×Draw23%
VVV Venlo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.82
VVV Venlo
1.34

Willem II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 47 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.25
VVV Venlo
1.17

allows per match

Willem II
1.52
VVV Venlo
2.40

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

VVV Venlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
72%
Willem II or VVV Venlo
77%
Draw or VVV Venlo
51%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
27%
VVV Venlo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
84%
Willem II 2+ goals
54%
Willem II 3+ goals
27%
VVV Venlo 1+ goals
74%
VVV Venlo 2+ goals
39%
VVV Venlo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
63%
VVV Venlo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

VVV Venlo away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.40 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.25 + VVV Venlo defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.82

VVV Venlo attack 1.17 + Willem II defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Willem II scores more
49%
level
23%
VVV Venlo scores more
28%

Willem II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Willem II vs VVV Venlo

Willem II beat VVV Venlo 2-1 in Eredivisie on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.