VVV Venlo 1–3 Willem II: Result & Stats

VVV Venlo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Willem II

11/17/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 15Covebo Stadion - De Koel -

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

VVV Venlo30%

×Draw25%

Willem II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VVV VenloExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.57

VVV Venlo

1.24

Willem II

1.57

Willem II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 59 away

1.41

creates per match

1.68

1.46

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

VVV Venlo

1.41

Willem II

1.68

allows per match

VVV Venlo

1.46

Willem II

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VVV Venlo+0.00on par

Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VVV Venlo ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

VVV Venlo or draw

55%

VVV Venlo or Willem II

75%

Draw or Willem II

70%

Winning margin

VVV Venlo wins by 2+

13%

Willem II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

VVV Venlo 1+ goals

71%

VVV Venlo 2+ goals

35%

VVV Venlo 3+ goals

13%

Willem II 1+ goals

79%

Willem II 2+ goals

46%

Willem II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

VVV Venlo (draw refunded)

40%

Willem II (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VVV Venlo at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.46 · 95 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VVV Venlo attack 1.41 + Willem II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.24

Willem II attack 1.68 + VVV Venlo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

VVV Venlo scores more

30%

level

25%

Willem II scores more

45%

Willem II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff