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Willem II vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Roda
Roda
2/23/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 27Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Willem II50%
×Draw24%
Roda26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.73
Roda
1.17

Willem II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 148 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.85
Roda
1.38

allows per match

Willem II
0.95
Roda
1.61

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
74%
Willem II or Roda
76%
Draw or Roda
50%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
27%
Roda wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
82%
Willem II 2+ goals
52%
Willem II 3+ goals
25%
Roda 1+ goals
69%
Roda 2+ goals
33%
Roda 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
66%
Roda (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Roda away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.61 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + Roda defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.73

Roda attack 1.38 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Willem II scores more
50%
level
24%
Roda scores more
26%

Willem II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Willem II 2 – 3 Roda

Roda beat Willem II 3-2 in Eerste Divisie on February 23, 2024.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.