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Roda vs Willem II — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Willem II
Willem II
10/21/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 11Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Roda36%
×Draw25%
Willem II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.42
Willem II
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 148 home / 59 away

creates per match

Roda
1.76
Willem II
1.68

allows per match

Roda
1.27
Willem II
1.07

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Willem II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Roda or draw
61%
Roda or Willem II
75%
Draw or Willem II
64%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
17%
Willem II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
76%
Roda 2+ goals
41%
Roda 3+ goals
17%
Willem II 1+ goals
77%
Willem II 2+ goals
43%
Willem II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
48%
Willem II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 148 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.76 + Willem II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.42

Willem II attack 1.68 + Roda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Roda scores more
36%
level
25%
Willem II scores more
39%

Willem II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roda vs Willem II

Willem II beat Roda 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.