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Willem II vs Roda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Roda
Roda
E. Kabangu 1'
1/6/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 19Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Willem II43%
×Draw22%
Roda36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.96
Roda
1.77

Willem II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Willem II
2.25
Roda
2.13

allows per match

Willem II
1.41
Roda
1.67

finishing

Willem II-0.58scores less
Roda-0.57scores less

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
64%
Willem II or Roda
78%
Draw or Roda
57%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
24%
Roda wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
86%
Willem II 2+ goals
58%
Willem II 3+ goals
31%
Roda 1+ goals
83%
Roda 2+ goals
53%
Roda 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
55%
Roda (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.41 · 6 matches

Roda away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.25 + Roda defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Roda attack 2.13 + Willem II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Willem II scores more
43%
level
22%
Roda scores more
36%

Willem II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
E. KabanguWillem IIWillem II · F
7.6

Match Events

1'
E. Kabangu↳ M. de Leeuw
31'
X. Lambrix← G. Joppen
71'
A. van der Heide← L. Daneels
71'
F. Mayer← N. Röseler
72'
J. Hornkamp← M. de Leeuw
72'
D. Mathieu← M. Svensson
77'
Terrence Douglas
79'
Boyd Reith
86'
J. Takidine← B. Reith
87'
R. Postema← N. Vossebelt
90+2'
J. Schroijen← E. Kabangu

Possession

46%Willem

Shots

11Willem

Pass accuracy

49%Willem

Statistics

WillemRoda
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots3
8Corners0
10Fouls12
Shots
11Total Shots3
5On Target0
5Off Target1
1Blocked2
4Inside Box0
7Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
409Total Passes491
333Accurate Passes408
81%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
3Offsides0

Willem II 1 – 0 Roda

Willem II beat Roda 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on January 6, 2023.

Goals: E. Kabangu (1').

Roda controlled possession (54%) and registered 3 shots to 11.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.