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Willem II vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
9/5/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 4Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Willem II47%
×Draw24%
NAC Breda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.69
NAC Breda
1.29

Willem II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 90 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.85
NAC Breda
1.62

allows per match

Willem II
0.95
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
71%
Willem II or NAC Breda
76%
Draw or NAC Breda
53%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
25%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
82%
Willem II 2+ goals
50%
Willem II 3+ goals
24%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
72%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
37%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
61%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.69

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Willem II scores more
47%
level
24%
NAC Breda scores more
29%

Willem II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Willem II 1–4 NAC Breda

NAC Breda beat Willem II 4-1 in Eerste Divisie on September 5, 2023.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.