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NAC Breda vs Willem II — Eredivisie 2018

NAC Breda
NAC Breda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Willem II
Willem II
5/18/2025EredivisieEredivisie · Round 34Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

NAC Breda45%
×Draw24%
Willem II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAC Breda
1.68
Willem II
1.34

NAC Breda creates 25% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 85 away

creates per match

NAC Breda
1.31
Willem II
1.22

allows per match

NAC Breda
1.46
Willem II
2.05

finishing

NAC Breda+0.00on par
Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Willem II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw
69%
NAC Breda or Willem II
76%
Draw or Willem II
55%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+
24%
Willem II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals
81%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
50%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
24%
Willem II 1+ goals
74%
Willem II 2+ goals
39%
Willem II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)
60%
Willem II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.46 · 59 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.05 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.31 + Willem II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.68

Willem II attack 1.22 + NAC Breda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NAC Breda scores more
45%
level
24%
Willem II scores more
31%

NAC Breda at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: NAC Breda 1–1 Willem II

NAC Breda and Willem II drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Breda.