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Willem II vs NAC Breda — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
J. Bokila 9' (pen)
J. Antonia 52'
R. Ligeon 47'
12/11/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 17Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Willem II47%
×Draw24%
NAC Breda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.69
NAC Breda
1.28

Willem II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 90 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.85
NAC Breda
1.61

allows per match

Willem II
0.95
NAC Breda
1.53

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
71%
Willem II or NAC Breda
76%
Draw or NAC Breda
53%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
25%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
82%
Willem II 2+ goals
50%
Willem II 3+ goals
24%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
72%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
37%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
62%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.69

NAC Breda attack 1.61 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Willem II scores more
47%
level
24%
NAC Breda scores more
29%

Willem II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
J. BoschWillem IIWillem II · M
7.5

Match Events

9'
J. BokilaPenalty
41'
Max Svensson
47'
R. Ligeon↳ B. Lucassen
52'
J. Antonia
56'
Matthias Verreth
65'
M. Rutten← R. Ligeon
70'
T. Lesquoy← L. Woudenberg
70'
M. de Leeuw← M. Svensson
75'
K. de Rooij← J. Antonia
79'
J. Hornkamp← W. Dammers
79'
D. Crowley← R. Meerveld
86'
Jizz Hornkamp
86'
Odysseus Velanas
89'
E. Banzuzi← S. Agougil

Possession

60%Willem

Shots

16Willem

Pass accuracy

54%Willem

Statistics

WillemNAC
Overview
60%Possession40%
16Total Shots10
8Corners1
17Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots10
5On Target5
8Off Target3
3Blocked2
12Inside Box7
4Outside Box3
Passing
60%Possession40%
447Total Passes303
329Accurate Passes189
74%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
17Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides4

Match Recap: Willem II vs NAC Breda

NAC Breda beat Willem II 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on December 11, 2022.

Goals: J. Bokila (9' pen), R. Ligeon (47'), J. Antonia (52').

Willem II controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.