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Willem II vs Jong Utrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
11/10/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Willem II60%
×Draw21%
Jong Utrecht19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
2.00
Jong Utrecht
1.01

Willem II creates 98% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 147 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.85
Jong Utrecht
1.07

allows per match

Willem II
0.95
Jong Utrecht
2.16

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
81%
Willem II or Jong Utrecht
79%
Draw or Jong Utrecht
40%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
36%
Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
86%
Willem II 2+ goals
59%
Willem II 3+ goals
32%
Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
64%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
27%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
76%
Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Willem II scores more
60%
level
21%
Jong Utrecht scores more
19%

Willem II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Willem II vs Jong Utrecht

Willem II beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.