Jong Utrecht vs Willem II — Eerste Divisie 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 59+ matches
Jong Utrecht27%
Willem II49%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Willem II creates 42% more chances
Season form · 149 home / 59 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over54
- Under46
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Jong Utrecht ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Jong Utrecht at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 149 matches
Willem II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Jong Utrecht attack 1.29 + Willem II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18
Willem II attack 1.68 + Jong Utrecht defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Willem II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Twente
Sparta Rotterdam
Den Bosch
Go Ahead Eagles
FC OSS
Almere City FC
Waalwijk
NEC Nijmegen
Cambuur
Jong Ajax
MVV
Roda
FC Eindhoven
Telstar
FC Volendam
Dordrecht
Jong AZJong Utrecht
Helmond SportIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Jong Utrecht host Willem II on Monday, 16 February 2026 at 19:00. The match is part of the Eerste Divisie 2018/2019 season.
Eerste Divisie: Jong Utrecht 1–1 Willem II
Jong Utrecht and Willem II drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on February 16, 2026.
The match was played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Utrecht.