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Willem II vs FC Eindhoven — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Willem II
Willem II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
N. de Bruijn 74'
J. Slory 29'
M. de Jonge 45+1', 6'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Willem II49%
×Draw23%
FC Eindhoven28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.82
FC Eindhoven
1.32

Willem II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

creates per match

Willem II
2.10
FC Eindhoven
1.15

allows per match

Willem II
1.50
FC Eindhoven
1.54

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
FC Eindhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
72%
Willem II or FC Eindhoven
77%
Draw or FC Eindhoven
51%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
27%
FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
84%
Willem II 2+ goals
54%
Willem II 3+ goals
27%
FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
73%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
38%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
64%
FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.10 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.82

FC Eindhoven attack 1.15 + Willem II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Willem II scores more
49%
level
23%
FC Eindhoven scores more
28%

Willem II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. de Jonge
29'
J. Slory
45+1'
M. de Jonge
74'
N. de Bruijn
Willem
FC
John Stegeman
Manager: John Stegeman
Maurice Verberne
Manager: Maurice Verberne

Friendlies Clubs: Willem II 2–2 FC Eindhoven

Willem II and FC Eindhoven drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: M. de Jonge (6', 45+1'), J. Slory (29'), N. de Bruijn (74').