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FC Eindhoven vs Willem II — Eerste Divisie 2018

FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Willem II
Willem II
1/18/2026Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 23Jan Louwers Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FC Eindhoven33%
×Draw25%
Willem II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Eindhoven
1.35
Willem II
1.56

Willem II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 59 away

creates per match

FC Eindhoven
1.64
Willem II
1.68

allows per match

FC Eindhoven
1.45
Willem II
1.07

finishing

FC Eindhoven+0.00on par
Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Eindhoven ↓

Willem II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FC Eindhoven or draw
58%
FC Eindhoven or Willem II
75%
Draw or Willem II
67%

Winning margin

FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
15%
Willem II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
74%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
39%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
15%
Willem II 1+ goals
79%
Willem II 2+ goals
46%
Willem II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
44%
Willem II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Eindhoven at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 148 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Eindhoven attack 1.64 + Willem II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Willem II attack 1.68 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FC Eindhoven scores more
33%
level
25%
Willem II scores more
42%

Willem II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: FC Eindhoven 0–2 Willem II

Willem II beat FC Eindhoven 2-0 in Eerste Divisie on January 18, 2026.

The match was played at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eindhoven.