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Willem II vs FC Eindhoven — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Eindhoven
FC Eindhoven
J. Bokila 88'
D. Mathieu 70'
J. Hornkamp 11'
2/6/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 21Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Willem II50%
×Draw22%
FC Eindhoven29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
2.02
FC Eindhoven
1.50

Willem II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Willem II
2.25
FC Eindhoven
1.59

allows per match

Willem II
1.41
FC Eindhoven
1.80

finishing

Willem II-0.58scores less
FC Eindhoven-0.59scores less

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

FC Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
71%
Willem II or FC Eindhoven
78%
Draw or FC Eindhoven
50%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
29%
FC Eindhoven wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
87%
Willem II 2+ goals
60%
Willem II 3+ goals
33%
FC Eindhoven 1+ goals
78%
FC Eindhoven 2+ goals
44%
FC Eindhoven 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
63%
FC Eindhoven (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.41 · 6 matches

FC Eindhoven away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.80 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.25 + FC Eindhoven defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

FC Eindhoven attack 1.59 + Willem II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Willem II scores more
50%
level
22%
FC Eindhoven scores more
29%

Willem II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
L. OwusuWillem IIWillem II · D
7.9

Match Events

10'
Dyon Dorenbosch
11'
J. Hornkamp↳ E. Kabangu
46'
S. van Doorm← D. Dorenbosch
46'
L. Diaby-Fadiga← J. Ogenia
67'
D. Mathieu← M. Svensson
67'
J. Bokila← J. Hornkamp
70'
D. Mathieu
71'
F. Heerkens← Pol Llonch
72'
C. Faber← T. Persyn
76'
K. Oostenbrink← P. Bogaers
79'
Rodrigo Rêgo← J. Dahlhaus
86'
M. de Leeuw← E. Kabangu
88'
J. Bokila↳ L. Owusu

Possession

57%Willem

Shots

22Willem

Pass accuracy

54%Willem

Statistics

WillemFC
Overview
57%Possession43%
22Total Shots4
5Corners2
11Fouls7
Shots
22Total Shots4
9On Target1
10Off Target1
3Blocked2
13Inside Box1
9Outside Box3
Passing
57%Possession43%
524Total Passes391
431Accurate Passes277
82%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Willem II vs FC Eindhoven

Willem II beat FC Eindhoven 3-0 in Eerste Divisie on February 6, 2023.

Goals: J. Hornkamp (11'), D. Mathieu (70'), J. Bokila (88').

Willem II controlled possession (57%) and registered 22 shots to 4.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.