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Willem II vs Den Bosch — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Den Bosch
Den Bosch
10/15/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 10Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Willem II57%
×Draw22%
Den Bosch21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.93
Den Bosch
1.07

Willem II creates 80% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 148 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.85
Den Bosch
1.19

allows per match

Willem II
0.95
Den Bosch
2.01

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
Den Bosch+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Den Bosch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
79%
Willem II or Den Bosch
78%
Draw or Den Bosch
43%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
34%
Den Bosch wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
85%
Willem II 2+ goals
57%
Willem II 3+ goals
30%
Den Bosch 1+ goals
66%
Den Bosch 2+ goals
29%
Den Bosch 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
73%
Den Bosch (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.01 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + Den Bosch defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.93

Den Bosch attack 1.19 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Willem II scores more
57%
level
22%
Den Bosch scores more
21%

Willem II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Willem II 3–1 Den Bosch

Willem II beat Den Bosch 3-1 in Eerste Divisie on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.