Den Bosch 0–2 Willem II: Result & Stats

Den Bosch

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Willem II

4/2/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 31Stadion De Vliert

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Den Bosch33%

×Draw24%

Willem II43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Den BoschExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.59

Den Bosch

1.37

Willem II

1.59

Willem II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 59 away

1.67

creates per match

1.68

1.50

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Den Bosch

1.67

Willem II

1.68

allows per match

Den Bosch

1.50

Willem II

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Den Bosch+0.00on par

Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Den Bosch ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Den Bosch or draw

57%

Den Bosch or Willem II

76%

Draw or Willem II

67%

Winning margin

Den Bosch wins by 2+

15%

Willem II wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Den Bosch 1+ goals

75%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

40%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

16%

Willem II 1+ goals

80%

Willem II 2+ goals

47%

Willem II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

44%

Willem II (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Den Bosch at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 149 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Den Bosch attack 1.67 + Willem II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Willem II attack 1.68 + Den Bosch defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Den Bosch scores more

33%

level

24%

Willem II scores more

43%

Willem II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff