Willem II 1–2 Den Bosch: Result & Stats

Willem II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Den Bosch

J. Bosch 73'

F. Hammouti 52', 1'

10/7/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 10Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Willem II51%

×Draw22%

Den Bosch27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Willem IIExpected goals in this matchDen Bosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.41

Willem II

1.98

Den Bosch

1.41

Willem II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

2.25

creates per match

1.41

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Willem II

2.25

Den Bosch

1.41

allows per match

Willem II

1.41

Den Bosch

1.72

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Willem II-0.58scores less

Den Bosch+0.32scores more

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Den Bosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Willem II or draw

73%

Willem II or Den Bosch

78%

Draw or Den Bosch

49%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+

29%

Den Bosch wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals

86%

Willem II 2+ goals

59%

Willem II 3+ goals

31%

Den Bosch 1+ goals

76%

Den Bosch 2+ goals

41%

Den Bosch 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)

65%

Den Bosch (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.41 · 6 matches

Den Bosch away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.72 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.25 + Den Bosch defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.98

Den Bosch attack 1.41 + Willem II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Willem II scores more

51%

level

22%

Den Bosch scores more

27%

Willem II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

F. Hammouti

Den Bosch · M

8.5

Match Events

1'

F. Hammouti↳ A. Ahannach

8'

D. Ryan← J. van der Winden

43'

Pol Llonch← M. Verreth

45+5'

Max Svensson

45+1'

Wessel Dammers

46'

E. Schouten← M. Svensson

52'

F. Hammouti↳ E. Patoulidis

60'

J. Hornkamp← M. de Leeuw

60'

T. Lesquoy← L. Woudenberg

68'

Jesse Bosch

73'

T. van Grunsven← V. van den Bogert

73'

J. Bosch↳ J. Hornkamp

74'

D. Halilović← S. van der Heijden

74'

R. Leijten← F. Hammouti

79'

J. Bokila← D. Crowley

82'

J. van Hedel← R. Mulders

89'

Jeremy Bokila

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WillemDen

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Total Shots8

5Corners3

8Fouls3

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target5

5Off Target3

1Blocked0

7Inside Box3

2Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

506Total Passes439

392Accurate Passes334

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls3

3Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3