Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sydvest vs Tarup-Paarup — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Sydvest
Sydvest
FT
0 – 2
Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
9/29/20182nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 10BankParken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sydvest42%
×Draw29%
Tarup-Paarup29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sydvest
1.21
Tarup-Paarup
0.94

Sydvest creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sydvest
1.05
Tarup-Paarup
0.63

allows per match

Sydvest
1.24
Tarup-Paarup
1.38

finishing

Sydvest+0.00on par
Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sydvest ↓

Tarup-Paarup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sydvest or draw
71%
Sydvest or Tarup-Paarup
71%
Draw or Tarup-Paarup
58%

Winning margin

Sydvest wins by 2+
18%
Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sydvest 1+ goals
70%
Sydvest 2+ goals
34%
Sydvest 3+ goals
12%
Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
61%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
24%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sydvest (draw refunded)
60%
Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sydvest at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

Tarup-Paarup away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sydvest attack 1.05 + Tarup-Paarup defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.21

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.63 + Sydvest defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sydvest scores more
42%
level
29%
Tarup-Paarup scores more
29%

Sydvest at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sydvest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Sydvest 0–2 Tarup-Paarup

Tarup-Paarup beat Sydvest 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at BankParken in Tønder.