Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tarup-Paarup vs Sydvest — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Tarup-Paarup
Tarup-Paarup
FT
1 – 1
Sydvest
Sydvest
4/6/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 21Home Tarup Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tarup-Paarup27%
×Draw24%
Sydvest49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tarup-Paarup
1.23
Sydvest
1.74

Sydvest creates 41% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

creates per match

Tarup-Paarup
0.57
Sydvest
1.19

allows per match

Tarup-Paarup
2.29
Sydvest
1.90

finishing

Tarup-Paarup+0.00on par
Sydvest+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tarup-Paarup ↓

Sydvest →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Tarup-Paarup or draw
51%
Tarup-Paarup or Sydvest
76%
Draw or Sydvest
73%

Winning margin

Tarup-Paarup wins by 2+
11%
Sydvest wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Tarup-Paarup 1+ goals
71%
Tarup-Paarup 2+ goals
35%
Tarup-Paarup 3+ goals
13%
Sydvest 1+ goals
82%
Sydvest 2+ goals
52%
Sydvest 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Tarup-Paarup (draw refunded)
35%
Sydvest (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tarup-Paarup at home — creates 0.57, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

Sydvest away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tarup-Paarup attack 0.57 + Sydvest defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sydvest attack 1.19 + Tarup-Paarup defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tarup-Paarup scores more
27%
level
24%
Sydvest scores more
49%

Sydvest at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sydvest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tarup-Paarup vs Sydvest

Tarup-Paarup and Sydvest drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Home Tarup Park in Odense.