Wiliete 2–1 São Salvador: Result & Stats | Girabola

Wiliete

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

São Salvador

5/12/2024

Girabola · Round 26Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Wiliete55%

×Draw26%

São Salvador19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WilieteExpected goals in this matchSão Salvador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.76

Wiliete

1.49

São Salvador

0.76

Wiliete creates 96% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 44 away

1.64

creates per match

0.59

0.94

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Wiliete

1.64

São Salvador

0.59

allows per match

Wiliete

0.94

São Salvador

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par

São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

São Salvador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw

81%

Wiliete or São Salvador

74%

Draw or São Salvador

45%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+

28%

São Salvador wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals

77%

Wiliete 2+ goals

44%

Wiliete 3+ goals

19%

São Salvador 1+ goals

53%

São Salvador 2+ goals

18%

São Salvador 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)

74%

São Salvador (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.49

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wiliete scores more

55%

level

26%

São Salvador scores more

19%

Wiliete at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff