São Salvador 1–2 Wiliete: Result & Stats | Girabola

São Salvador

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Wiliete

11/30/2025

Girabola · Round 9Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

São Salvador44%

×Draw30%

Wiliete26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São SalvadorExpected goals in this matchWiliete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.85

São Salvador

1.21

Wiliete

0.85

São Salvador creates 42% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 99 away

1.41

creates per match

0.95

0.75

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

São Salvador

1.41

Wiliete

0.95

allows per match

São Salvador

0.75

Wiliete

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par

Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Wiliete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw

74%

São Salvador or Wiliete

70%

Draw or Wiliete

56%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+

20%

Wiliete wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals

70%

São Salvador 2+ goals

34%

São Salvador 3+ goals

12%

Wiliete 1+ goals

57%

Wiliete 2+ goals

21%

Wiliete 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)

63%

Wiliete (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Wiliete attack 0.95 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

São Salvador scores more

44%

level

30%

Wiliete scores more

26%

São Salvador at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff