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Wiliete vs Cuando Cubango — Girabola 2019

Wiliete
Wiliete
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cuando Cubango
Cuando Cubango
10/16/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 4Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Wiliete54%
×Draw25%
Cuando Cubango21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiliete
1.57
Cuando Cubango
0.87

Wiliete creates 80% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 50 away

creates per match

Wiliete
1.64
Cuando Cubango
0.80

allows per match

Wiliete
0.94
Cuando Cubango
1.50

finishing

Wiliete+0.00on par
Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiliete ↓

Cuando Cubango →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wiliete or draw
79%
Wiliete or Cuando Cubango
75%
Draw or Cuando Cubango
46%

Winning margin

Wiliete wins by 2+
28%
Cuando Cubango wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wiliete 1+ goals
79%
Wiliete 2+ goals
46%
Wiliete 3+ goals
21%
Cuando Cubango 1+ goals
58%
Cuando Cubango 2+ goals
22%
Cuando Cubango 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wiliete (draw refunded)
72%
Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiliete at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 100 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiliete attack 1.64 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.57

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Wiliete defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wiliete scores more
54%
level
25%
Cuando Cubango scores more
21%

Wiliete at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wiliete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Wiliete 3–1 Cuando Cubango

Wiliete beat Cuando Cubango 3-1 in Girabola on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional de OMBAKA in Benguela.