Cuando Cubango 0–1 Wiliete: Result & Stats

Cuando Cubango

FT

0 – 1

Wiliete

12/5/2021

Girabola · Round 10Estádio Municipal dos Eucaliptos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Cuando Cubango35%

×Draw33%

Wiliete31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cuando CubangoExpected goals in this matchWiliete

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

0.85

Cuando Cubango

0.92

Wiliete

0.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 99 away

0.82

creates per match

0.95

0.76

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Cuando Cubango

0.82

Wiliete

0.95

allows per match

Cuando Cubango

0.76

Wiliete

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Wiliete+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cuando Cubango ↓

Wiliete →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Cuando Cubango or draw

69%

Cuando Cubango or Wiliete

67%

Draw or Wiliete

65%

Winning margin

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+

13%

Wiliete wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals

60%

Cuando Cubango 2+ goals

23%

Cuando Cubango 3+ goals

7%

Wiliete 1+ goals

57%

Wiliete 2+ goals

21%

Wiliete 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)

53%

Wiliete (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cuando Cubango at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Wiliete away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.02 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cuando Cubango attack 0.82 + Wiliete defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.92

Wiliete attack 0.95 + Cuando Cubango defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Cuando Cubango scores more

35%

level

33%

Wiliete scores more

31%

Cuando Cubango at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Cuando Cubango will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff