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Wikki Tourist vs Sunshine Stars — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
4/7/2022NPFLNPFL · Round 21Pantami Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wikki Tourist57%
×Draw27%
Sunshine Stars16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.43
Sunshine Stars
0.60

Wikki Tourist creates 138% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 110 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Sunshine Stars
0.48

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Sunshine Stars
1.44

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Sunshine Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Sunshine Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
84%
Wikki Tourist or Sunshine Stars
73%
Draw or Sunshine Stars
43%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
29%
Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
76%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
42%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
17%
Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
45%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
12%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
79%
Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Sunshine Stars away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.44 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Sunshine Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sunshine Stars attack 0.48 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
57%
level
27%
Sunshine Stars scores more
16%

Wikki Tourist at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Wikki Tourist 1–0 Sunshine Stars

Wikki Tourist beat Sunshine Stars 1-0 in NPFL on April 7, 2022.

The match was played at Pantami Township Stadium in Gombe.