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Sunshine Stars vs Wikki Tourist — NPFL 2019

Sunshine Stars
Sunshine Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
2/19/2023NPFLNPFL · Round 9Akure Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Sunshine Stars58%
×Draw27%
Wikki Tourist15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sunshine Stars
1.41
Wikki Tourist
0.57

Sunshine Stars creates 147% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 89 away

creates per match

Sunshine Stars
1.33
Wikki Tourist
0.52

allows per match

Sunshine Stars
0.63
Wikki Tourist
1.48

finishing

Sunshine Stars+0.00on par
Wikki Tourist+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sunshine Stars ↓

Wikki Tourist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sunshine Stars or draw
85%
Sunshine Stars or Wikki Tourist
73%
Draw or Wikki Tourist
42%

Winning margin

Sunshine Stars wins by 2+
29%
Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sunshine Stars 1+ goals
76%
Sunshine Stars 2+ goals
41%
Sunshine Stars 3+ goals
17%
Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
43%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
11%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Sunshine Stars (draw refunded)
79%
Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sunshine Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.63 · 112 matches

Wikki Tourist away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.48 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sunshine Stars attack 1.33 + Wikki Tourist defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wikki Tourist attack 0.52 + Sunshine Stars defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sunshine Stars scores more
58%
level
27%
Wikki Tourist scores more
15%

Sunshine Stars at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sunshine Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sunshine Stars vs Wikki Tourist

Sunshine Stars beat Wikki Tourist 1-0 in NPFL on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Akure Township Stadium in Akure.