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Wikki Tourist vs Kun Khalifat FC — NPFL 2019

Wikki Tourist
Wikki Tourist
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kun Khalifat FC
Kun Khalifat FC
12/21/2025NPFLNPFL · Round 18Abubarkar Tafawa Balewa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Wikki Tourist50%
×Draw28%
Kun Khalifat FC22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wikki Tourist
1.35
Kun Khalifat FC
0.78

Wikki Tourist creates 73% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 18 away

creates per match

Wikki Tourist
1.42
Kun Khalifat FC
0.83

allows per match

Wikki Tourist
0.73
Kun Khalifat FC
1.28

finishing

Wikki Tourist+0.00on par
Kun Khalifat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wikki Tourist ↓

Kun Khalifat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wikki Tourist or draw
78%
Wikki Tourist or Kun Khalifat FC
72%
Draw or Kun Khalifat FC
50%

Winning margin

Wikki Tourist wins by 2+
24%
Kun Khalifat FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Wikki Tourist 1+ goals
74%
Wikki Tourist 2+ goals
39%
Wikki Tourist 3+ goals
15%
Kun Khalifat FC 1+ goals
54%
Kun Khalifat FC 2+ goals
18%
Kun Khalifat FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wikki Tourist (draw refunded)
70%
Kun Khalifat FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wikki Tourist at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 91 matches

Kun Khalifat FC away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wikki Tourist attack 1.42 + Kun Khalifat FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kun Khalifat FC attack 0.83 + Wikki Tourist defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wikki Tourist scores more
50%
level
28%
Kun Khalifat FC scores more
22%

Wikki Tourist at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wikki Tourist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wikki Tourist vs Kun Khalifat FC

Wikki Tourist and Kun Khalifat FC drew 0-0 in NPFL on December 21, 2025.

The match was played at Abubarkar Tafawa Balewa Stadium in Bauchi.